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With the 92nd Academy Awards less only a few days away, there’s still a lot of speculation surrounding the major award categories . One film that remains the center of attention for many is Bong Joon-ho’s “Parasite”. Having succeeded in areas where few other films made outside the United States have, the South Korean black comedy/thriller has defied the odds to become one of the most talked about contenders of the award season this year. In fact, many have even raised the question as to whether or not the film can even do what no other foreign film has and take home the prestigious honor of Best Picture. Indeed, with six nominations overall, including Director and Best Original Screenplay (widely considered to be musts in order for serious consideration for the top prize), there’s no doubt that the film stands a fighting chance. That being said, is the evidence strong enough to suggest that a Best Picture win for “Parasite” is not only possible, but a serious likelihood?
In order to answer this question, it may be best to look at the chances of “Parasite” winning in one category in particular: Best Original Screenplay. Two major award ceremonies that occurred earlier this week – the British Academy Film Awards (or BAFTAs for short) and the Writers Guild of America Awards (WGAs) – both honored the film with their respective Best Original Screenplays. Based on past results, there is a strong correlation between these awards and success at the Oscars.
Given its status as the United Kingdom’s equivalent to the America-centric Oscars, perhaps it’s best to start by looking at the recent history of the BAFTAs and how the films given Best Original Screenplay at this specific ceremony compare to the winners of the Oscar for the same category. Between the years 2009 and 2018, a span of ten years that precedes this most recent ceremony, there was an even number of films winning both the Oscar and BAFTA as there were films that won the BAFTA but not the Oscar. Of these ten films, five – “The Hurt Locker” (2009), “The King’s Speech” (2010), “Django Unchained” (2012), “Spotlight” (2015), and “Manchester by the Sea” (2016) – were recipients of Best Original Screenplay at both award ceremonies. Conversely, five films – “The Artist” (2011), “American Hustle” (2013), “The Grand Budapest Hotel” (2014), “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” (2017), and “The Favourite” (2018) – were given the BAFTA, but not the Oscar, for Best Original Screenplay. From these statistics alone, “Parasite” has a 50-50 chance of winning the Oscar in the same category it won the BAFTA.
Meanwhile, while the WGAs are not considered as prestigious as either the Oscars or the BAFTAs, they are one of the most highly regarded organizations that caters specifically to screenwriting and are therefore seen by some (as with the DGAs) as an indicator for what film will win the Oscar. Do the past wins reflect this theory? When comparing the winners of Best Original Screenplay at the WGAs in the years between 2009 and 2018 to the winners at the Oscars during that same time period, the results, like the BAFTAs, are split down the middle. On the one hand, five films – “The Hurt Locker” (2009), “Midnight in Paris” (2011), “Her” (2013), “Spotlight” (2015), and “Get Out” (2017) – won both the WGA and the Oscar for Best Original Screenplay. On the other hand, the other five WGA winner during this period – “Inception” (2010), “Zero Dark Thirty” (2012), “The Grand Budapest Hotel” (2014), “Moonlight” (2016), and “Eight Grade” (2018) – did not receive the Oscar for Best Original Screenplay. However, “Moonlight”, due to a technicality, was actually nominated for Best Adapted Screenplay at the Oscars and would later go on to win that award. Taking this into account, this would raise the count of simultaneous WAG/Oscar wins to six out of ten, meaning that, from these statistics alone, “Parasite” has a slightly higher chance of winning the Oscar for Best Original Screenplay.
Judging by these findings, it stands to reason that “Parasite” has a strong chance of winning Best Original Screenplay at the Oscars. However, if the film does end up being awarded for its screenplay, would that win translate to an eventual Best Picture win? Previous winners of Best Picture would say so. Between 2009 and 2018, only two Best Picture winners – “The Artist” (2011) and “The Shape of Water” (2017) – did not also receive an award for their screenplays. Every other Best Picture winner during these ten years – “The Hurt Locker” (2009), “The King’s Speech” (2010), “Argo” (2012), “12 Years a Slave” (2013), “Birdman” (2014), “Spotlight” (2015), “Moonlight” (2016), and “Green Book” (2018) – was awarded either Best Original Screenplay or Best Adapted Screenplay. In short, if “Parasite” does end up winning Best Original Screenplay, then its chances of also winning Best Picture are very much in its favor.
Of course, this is all speculation. Given how much goes into the voting process and how different some organizations are than others, the fact of the matter is anything’s possible, and it’s not entirely out of the question for there to be more than a few surprises when the Oscars take place on Sunday. With that said, “Parasite” has shown no signs of stopping when it comes to winning award after award, and its chances of winning its share of Oscars, including possibly even Best Picture, should not be underestimated.
